A dear friend of mine wrote a blog on “Red Car Theory”. It was the first time I had heard it. And as I read through the blog, it got me thinking about the different biases you MUST deal with as a product manager.
As a product manager, you’re in the driver’s seat, shaping the future of a product (no reason to get too proud about it). But it’s not just data, customer feedback, and market research that influence decisions. Unconsciously, biases sneak into the process, often steering us off course. Whether you’re a seasoned product manager or just getting started, recognizing and managing these biases can make or break your product’s success. Let’s break down some of the most common biases you’ll face, and how to deal with them.
1. Confirmation Bias: Seeing What You Want to See
What is it?
This is the tendency to favor information that confirms your existing beliefs or hypotheses while ignoring data that contradicts them. In product management, this bias can lead to tunnel vision, where you only focus on customer feedback or metrics that align with what you think is right.
Example:
Let’s say you’re launching a new feature that you believe will increase user engagement. You check your user feedback, but your eyes gravitate toward the positive comments. “See! People love it!” you exclaim. But you might be overlooking negative reviews or feature requests that suggest it’s not working as well as you think.
How to overcome it:
When testing hypotheses or making product decisions, actively seek out conflicting data. Ask team members or users to poke holes in your thinking. For example, run a user survey (internally or externally) and specifically look for feedback that challenges your assumptions. At Rently, we heavily collaborate with our internal teams (Sales, CS, Support) and give them enough time and opportunity to poke some holes – as engineers and product managers, you tend to be closer to your solution and might get misled.
2. Survivorship Bias: Ignoring the Silent Majority
What is it?
Survivorship bias happens when you focus on the users who stick around or succeed with your product while ignoring those who’ve churned or failed to engage. This leads to a distorted understanding of what’s really going on.
Example:
You’re looking at analytics, and you notice that your power users spend hours using your product every week. “Our product is a hit!” you might think. But what about the thousands of users who signed up and never came back? Ignoring them means you’re missing out on crucial data about why people abandon your product.
How to overcome it:
Pay attention to the data that’s missing, not just the data you have. Create user segments that include churned customers and investigate why they left. Conduct exit interviews or follow-up surveys to understand what went wrong.
3. Recency Bias: The Latest Shiny Thing Wins
What is it?
Recency bias is the tendency to give more weight to the latest information, thinking it’s the most relevant. As a product manager, you may prioritize recent feedback or data points, even if older insights are just as, if not more, important.
Example:
You’ve just rolled out a beta version of a new feature. Feedback starts rolling in, and the most recent 10 emails you get are filled with complaints. You immediately jump to the conclusion that the feature needs to be scrapped, without considering the 50 previous emails that were glowing with praise.
How to overcome it:
Take a step back and look at the broader data set before making decisions. Use tools like rolling averages to smooth out the impact of recency bias. Regularly review feedback across longer periods to get a balanced view.
4. The HiPPO Bias: Highest Paid Person’s Opinion
What is it?
The HiPPO bias refers to decisions being overly influenced by the most senior (and often highest-paid) person in the room, rather than being based on data or customer needs.
Example:
Imagine your CEO/CTO/CPO is in love with a new feature idea. They’ve made it clear that they believe it’s the “game-changer” for the company. Even if the data suggests otherwise, no one wants to argue with the boss. As a result, the team moves forward with a feature that may not actually serve user needs.
How to overcome it:
Data is your best friend here. Arm yourself with facts and present them clearly and confidently. If the decision still goes the other way, be sure to document the process and the evidence you provided. That way, if the decision turns out to be a mistake, you can revisit it with clear insights.
5. Anchoring Bias: The First Piece of Information Sets the Stage
What is it?
Anchoring happens when you place too much emphasis on the first piece of information you receive, using it as a reference point for all future decisions.
Example:
Let’s say a customer tells you that they’re willing to pay $50 per month for your service. That becomes your anchor, and every pricing discussion afterwards revolves around this number, even though it might not be the optimal price for the market.
How to overcome it:
Be aware of the first piece of information you receive and challenge its validity. Use market research, competitive analysis, and experiments to verify assumptions before making big decisions based on early input.
6. The Curse of Knowledge: Forgetting What It’s Like to Be a New User
What is it?
The curse of knowledge happens when you know so much about your product that you forget how it feels to be a new user. As a result, you might build features or workflows that make perfect sense to you but are baffling to newcomers.
Example:
You’re deep into your product roadmap, building an advanced feature that integrates seamlessly with your existing user flows. But new users are confused from the moment they sign up because they don’t have the context or experience you do. What seems obvious to you isn’t so obvious to them.
How to overcome it:
Stay close to your new users! Watch them use the product, and run user testing sessions with people who have never interacted with your product before. Get real-time feedback from beginners and incorporate their perspective into your decisions. At Rently, it is a regular practice for us to talk to people from outside (not our clients) to use it and share feedback.
7. Sunk Cost Fallacy: Holding Onto a Failing Product
What is it?
The sunk cost fallacy happens when you continue investing in a product or feature simply because you’ve already spent so much time, money, or energy on it, even though the data shows it’s not working.
Example:
Your team has been developing a new feature for months, but after several rounds of testing, it’s clear that users aren’t finding value in it. However, because of the time and resources already spent, you feel compelled to launch it anyway, hoping it will somehow turn things around.
How to overcome it:
Be willing to cut your losses. Evaluate each feature and project on its current and future potential, not based on how much you’ve already invested. Regularly reassess whether it’s worth moving forward or pivoting. As a product manager, it is critical to know when to axe a product/feature – more on that topic later.
Conclusion: Navigating Bias in Product Management
Biases are part of being human, and product managers aren’t immune. The key to building successful products is recognizing these biases and taking steps to minimize their impact. By relying on data, seeking out diverse perspectives, and staying open to challenging your assumptions, you’ll make smarter decisions and build products that truly meet your users’ needs.
So, next time you find yourself in a product meeting or deep into user research, take a step back and ask: “Am I being influenced by a bias right now?” It could save you from making decisions that don’t serve your users—or your product’s success!
Thank you for reading. I’d love to know if you’ve seen these biases in action. What’s been your experience, and how did you handle it?
Group Product Manager, Rently Smart Home